1. SNL · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Brinje-Grosuplje at 28%, the draw at 25% and Bravo at 47%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.65.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Brinje-Grosuplje have 9 in 12 this season (5 of 6 at home), Bravo 6 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 67% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Brinje-Grosuplje and 1.65 for Bravo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 12 | 75% | 25% | 67% |
| Bravo | 12 | 50% | 17% | 50% |
More: Brinje-Grosuplje season stats · Bravo season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.