ÖFB Cup · Thursday, 29 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Austria Lustenau at 22%, the draw at 23% and Sturm Graz at 55%, from expected goals of 1.18 and 1.96.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Austria Lustenau have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Sturm Graz 4 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.18 for Austria Lustenau and 1.96 for Sturm Graz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| Sturm Graz | 9 | 44% | 22% | 56% |
More: Austria Lustenau season stats · Sturm Graz season stats · ÖFB Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.