Copa del Rey · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Copa del Rey average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | no pick |
The result model puts Xerez at 51%, the draw at 25% and Cadiz at 24%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. Copa del Rey has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Xerez have 0 in 0 this season, Cadiz 4 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Xerez and 1.05 for Cadiz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez | 0 | — | — | — |
| Cadiz | 10 | 40% | 30% | 50% |
More: Cadiz season stats · Copa del Rey fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.