ÖFB Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz at 18%, the draw at 23% and Red Bull Salzburg at 60%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.49.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Red Bull Salzburg 5 in 9 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and 1.49 for Red Bull Salzburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 9 | 56% | 44% | 33% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 56% | 22% | 44% |
More: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz season stats · Red Bull Salzburg season stats · ÖFB Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.