DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | no pick |
The result model puts SC Freiburg at 69%, the draw at 17% and VfL Wolfsburg at 14%, from expected goals of 2.65 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SC Freiburg have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), VfL Wolfsburg 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.65 for SC Freiburg and 1.16 for VfL Wolfsburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 64%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 6 | 83% | 50% | 67% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 0 | — | — | — |
More: SC Freiburg season stats · VfL Wolfsburg season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.