Copa del Rey · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Copa del Rey average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Salamanca UDS at 33%, the draw at 32% and Celta Vigo at 35%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 1.
The league sets the starting point. Copa del Rey has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Salamanca UDS have 0 in 0 this season, Celta Vigo 3 in 9 (0 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Salamanca UDS and 1 for Celta Vigo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salamanca UDS | 0 | — | — | — |
| Celta Vigo | 9 | 33% | 11% | 44% |
More: Celta Vigo season stats · Copa del Rey fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.