Botola Pro · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Botola Pro average is 38%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Raja Casablanca at 57%, the draw at 25% and Hassania Agadir at 18%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Raja Casablanca have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Hassania Agadir 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 30% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 35%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Raja Casablanca and 0.79 for Hassania Agadir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raja Casablanca | 3 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| Hassania Agadir | 4 | 100% | 75% | 100% |
More: Raja Casablanca season stats · Hassania Agadir season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.