KNVB Beker · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The KNVB Beker average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts PEC Zwolle at 53%, the draw at 25% and FC OSS at 22%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. KNVB Beker has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PEC Zwolle have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), FC OSS 9 in 11 (4 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.31 for PEC Zwolle and 1.29 for FC OSS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 9 | 67% | 56% | 44% |
| FC OSS | 11 | 82% | 27% | 64% |
More: PEC Zwolle season stats · FC OSS season stats · KNVB Beker fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.