Greek Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Greek Cup average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Panathinaikos at 70%, the draw at 18% and Aris Thessalonikis at 12%, from expected goals of 2.31 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Panathinaikos have 4 in 7 this season (4 of 4 at home), Aris Thessalonikis 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 13%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 2.31 for Panathinaikos and 0.84 for Aris Thessalonikis. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 71% | 43% | 57% |
More: Panathinaikos season stats · Aris Thessalonikis season stats · Greek Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.