1. SNL · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 62%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Olimpija Ljubljana at 28%, the draw at 26% and Celje at 46%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olimpija Ljubljana have 4 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), Celje 4 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Olimpija Ljubljana and 1.57 for Celje. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 12 | 33% | 17% | 33% |
| Celje | 11 | 36% | 27% | 45% |
More: Olimpija Ljubljana season stats · Celje season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.