Greek Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Nestos Chrisoupolis at 42%, the draw at 27% and Kalamata at 31%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nestos Chrisoupolis have 0 in 0 this season, Kalamata 4 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Nestos Chrisoupolis and 1.19 for Kalamata. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nestos Chrisoupolis | 0 | — | — | — |
| Kalamata | 7 | 57% | 57% | 71% |
More: Kalamata season stats · Greek Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.