Premier League · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts National Bank of Egypt at 39%, the draw at 27% and AL Masry at 34%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. National Bank of Egypt have 3 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), AL Masry 2 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 33%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 36% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.38 for National Bank of Egypt and 1.25 for AL Masry. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 50% | 17% | 17% |
| AL Masry | 7 | 29% | 14% | 57% |
More: National Bank of Egypt season stats · AL Masry season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.