KNVB Beker · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 75% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The KNVB Beker average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts MVV at 14%, the draw at 17% and Excelsior at 69%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 2.05.
The league sets the starting point. KNVB Beker has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. MVV have 7 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), Excelsior 9 in 9 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 74%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.47 for MVV and 2.05 for Excelsior. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: MVV season stats · Excelsior season stats · KNVB Beker fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.