ÖFB Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Lask Linz at 63%, the draw at 20% and Ried at 17%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lask Linz have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Ried 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.21 for Lask Linz and 1.06 for Ried. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lask Linz season stats · Ried season stats · ÖFB Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.