Greek Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts Larisa at 41%, the draw at 25% and OFI at 34%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Larisa have 0 in 0 this season, OFI 4 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Larisa and 1.42 for OFI. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 52%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Larisa season stats · OFI season stats · Greek Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.