DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Hannover 96 at 46%, the draw at 28% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 26%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hannover 96 have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Hannover 96 and 0.95 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover 96 | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 38% | 0% | 13% |
More: Hannover 96 season stats · 1. FC Kaiserslautern season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.