DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Dynamo Dresden at 26%, the draw at 27% and FC Schalke 04 at 47%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dynamo Dresden have 5 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), FC Schalke 04 3 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Dynamo Dresden and 1.16 for FC Schalke 04. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 63% | 25% | 63% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 50% | 17% | 33% |
More: Dynamo Dresden season stats · FC Schalke 04 season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.