EFL Cup · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The EFL Cup average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Bournemouth at 44%, the draw at 28% and Aston Villa at 28%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bournemouth have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), Aston Villa 4 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Bournemouth and 1.05 for Aston Villa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 7 | 57% | 43% | 71% |
| Aston Villa | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
More: Bournemouth season stats · Aston Villa season stats · EFL Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.