DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 80% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Bayern München at 92%, the draw at 6% and 1. FC Magdeburg at 3%, from expected goals of 3.75 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayern München have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), 1. FC Magdeburg 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 76% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 87%, from expected goals of 3.75 for Bayern München and 1.17 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 80%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| 1. FC Magdeburg | 8 | 63% | 13% | 38% |
More: Bayern München season stats · 1. FC Magdeburg season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.