DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Bayer Leverkusen at 75%, the draw at 16% and 1. FC Nürnberg at 9%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayer Leverkusen have 5 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), 1. FC Nürnberg 6 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.05 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 83% | 67% | 67% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 75% | 50% | 75% |
More: Bayer Leverkusen season stats · 1. FC Nürnberg season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.