DFB Pokal · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 79% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 21% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 12%, the draw at 15% and FC Augsburg at 73%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.77.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have 5 in 10 this season (2 of 6 at home), FC Augsburg 6 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 71%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.87 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.77 for FC Augsburg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 2 divisions apart, so the rating moves to 79%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| FC Augsburg | 6 | 100% | 83% | 83% |
More: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach season stats · FC Augsburg season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.