DFB Pokal · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | no pick |
The result model puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 38%, the draw at 24% and RB Leipzig at 38%, from expected goals of 2.13 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rot-Weiß Essen have 0 in 0 this season, RB Leipzig 5 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 2.13 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.3 for RB Leipzig. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 62%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiß Essen | 0 | — | — | — |
| RB Leipzig | 6 | 83% | 67% | 33% |
More: Rot-Weiß Essen season stats · RB Leipzig season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.