KNVB Beker · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The KNVB Beker average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Helmond Sport at 27%, the draw at 22% and Willem II at 52%, from expected goals of 1.89 and 1.63.
The league sets the starting point. KNVB Beker has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Helmond Sport have 7 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), Willem II 7 in 9 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.89 for Helmond Sport and 1.63 for Willem II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 11 | 64% | 45% | 82% |
| Willem II | 9 | 78% | 67% | 78% |
More: Helmond Sport season stats · Willem II season stats · KNVB Beker fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.