DFB Pokal · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Hamburger SV at 42%, the draw at 22% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 36%, from expected goals of 1.96 and 1.8.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hamburger SV have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 3 at home), Eintracht Frankfurt 5 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 1.96 for Hamburger SV and 1.8 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 6 | 67% | 50% | 33% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 83% | 83% | 67% |
More: Hamburger SV season stats · Eintracht Frankfurt season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.