ÖFB Cup · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Grazer AK at 61%, the draw at 25% and SCR Altach at 14%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 0.65.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grazer AK have 6 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), SCR Altach 6 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Grazer AK and 0.65 for SCR Altach. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 9 | 67% | 33% | 44% |
| SCR Altach | 9 | 67% | 11% | 33% |
More: Grazer AK season stats · SCR Altach season stats · ÖFB Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.