EFL Cup · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The EFL Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Fleetwood Town at 4%, the draw at 12% and Arsenal at 84%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fleetwood Town have 3 in 11 this season (1 of 6 at home), Arsenal 4 in 7 (1 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Fleetwood Town and 1.26 for Arsenal. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 3 divisions apart, so the rating moves to 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 11 | 27% | 18% | 55% |
| Arsenal | 7 | 57% | 0% | 29% |
More: Fleetwood Town season stats · Arsenal season stats · EFL Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.