ÖFB Cup · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts First Vienna at 30%, the draw at 26% and Rapid Vienna at 44%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. First Vienna have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Rapid Vienna 7 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.59 for First Vienna and 1.19 for Rapid Vienna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna | 9 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
| Rapid Vienna | 9 | 78% | 44% | 44% |
More: First Vienna season stats · Rapid Vienna season stats · ÖFB Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.