KNVB Beker · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 73% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The KNVB Beker average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 27% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Eindhoven at 39%, the draw at 25% and FC Volendam at 36%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. KNVB Beker has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Eindhoven have 8 in 11 this season (5 of 6 at home), FC Volendam 6 in 11 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.97 for FC Eindhoven and 1.16 for FC Volendam. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 73%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Eindhoven | 11 | 73% | 55% | 64% |
| FC Volendam | 11 | 55% | 45% | 55% |
More: FC Eindhoven season stats · FC Volendam season stats · KNVB Beker fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.