KNVB Beker · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:45. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The KNVB Beker average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | no pick |
The result model puts Excelsior '31 at 51%, the draw at 23% and ADO Den Haag at 26%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 1.33.
The league sets the starting point. KNVB Beker has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Excelsior '31 have 0 in 0 this season, ADO Den Haag 6 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.92 for Excelsior '31 and 1.33 for ADO Den Haag. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior '31 | 0 | — | — | — |
| ADO Den Haag | 9 | 67% | 56% | 78% |
More: ADO Den Haag season stats · KNVB Beker fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.