EFL Cup · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The EFL Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Bradford at 56%, the draw at 27% and Peterborough at 16%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 0.65.
The league sets the starting point. EFL Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bradford have 1 in 10 this season (1 of 5 at home), Peterborough 5 in 10 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Bradford and 0.65 for Peterborough. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, so the rating moves to 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 10 | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Peterborough | 10 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
More: Bradford season stats · Peterborough season stats · EFL Cup fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.