DFB Pokal · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The DFB Pokal average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 64%, the draw at 19% and Karlsruher SC at 16%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 1.43.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Borussia Mönchengladbach have 6 in 6 this season (3 of 3 at home), Karlsruher SC 5 in 8 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.43 for Karlsruher SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
Cup tie. Domestic cup games have produced more goals than the clubs' league form suggests, more so when the clubs are 1 division apart, so the rating moves to 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
| Karlsruher SC | 8 | 63% | 38% | 38% |
More: Borussia Mönchengladbach season stats · Karlsruher SC season stats · DFB Pokal fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.