Ligue 1 · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 19:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon (Ligue 1, Monday, 26 October 2026) 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Paris Saint Germain 53%, the draw 25% and Lyon 22%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.40 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 1.53 | Yes |
| Paris Saint Germain win | 53% | 1.42 | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | 5.25 | |
| Lyon win | 22% | 6.00 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 86% | 57% | 86% |
| Lyon | 7 | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 80% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 57% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 80% | 92% | 50 |
| Lyon | 72% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 72% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Paris Saint Germain season stats · Lyon season stats · Ligue 1 table and form
League. Ligue 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Paris Saint Germain 6 of 7 (2 of 2 at home), Lyon 4 of 7 (1 of 3 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 61% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 56%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 59%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.68 (Paris Saint Germain) v 0.98 (Lyon) give 50%; 30% weight: 56%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 68% | 56% | -12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 32% | 44% | +12 |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 54% | -7 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Edge is the gap in points. A positive edge means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does; it is not a tip, and when we disagree the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.