Ligue 2 · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Montpellier at 33%, the draw at 29% and RED Star FC 93 at 38%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 1.23.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 44% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 56% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Montpellier 2.45, draw 3.20, RED Star FC 93 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Montpellier have 2 in 9 this season (0 of 4 at home), RED Star FC 93 4 in 9 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Montpellier and 1.23 for RED Star FC 93. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 9 | 22% | 11% | 33% |
| RED Star FC 93 | 9 | 44% | 33% | 56% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The Ligue 2 rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 33% (this season so far: 62% with a first-half goal, from 81 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 36% for two or more (league 74% and 39%). Montpellier's last 50 games had a first-half goal 60% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; RED Star FC 93's last 50, 70% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 49% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Montpellier season stats · RED Star FC 93 season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.