Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al Sadd — prediction, stats and goal analysis

AFC Champions · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 18:15. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The AFC Champions average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 36%, the draw at 24% and Al Sadd at 40%, from expected goals of 2.05 and 2.22.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. AFC Champions has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Al-Qadisiyah FC have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Al Sadd 6 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 68%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 66%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.05 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 2.22 for Al Sadd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: AFC Champions fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.