AFC Champions · Monday, 26 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The AFC Champions average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 72%, the draw at 17% and Al-Gharafa at 11%, from expected goals of 3.31 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. AFC Champions has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Ahli Jeddah have 7 in 8 this season (3 of 3 at home), Al-Gharafa 4 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 3.31 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.86 for Al-Gharafa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 88% | 75% | 38% |
| Al-Gharafa | 6 | 67% | 50% | 67% |
More: AFC Champions fixtures. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.