Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Vikingur Gota at 57%, the draw at 22% and EB / Streymur at 21%, from expected goals of 2.04 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vikingur Gota have 14 in 25 this season (9 of 13 at home), EB / Streymur 15 in 25 (10 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.04 for Vikingur Gota and 1.17 for EB / Streymur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikingur Gota | 25 | 56% | 32% | 60% |
| EB / Streymur | 25 | 60% | 20% | 60% |
More: Vikingur Gota season stats · EB / Streymur season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.