Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Skála at 49%, the draw at 25% and AB at 26%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Skála have 16 in 25 this season (9 of 13 at home), AB 14 in 25 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Skála and 1.11 for AB. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Skála season stats · AB season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.