Ligue 1 · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 16:15. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligue 1 average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Marseille at 64%, the draw at 20% and Le Havre at 15%, from expected goals of 2.16 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Marseille have 4 in 7 this season (3 of 3 at home), Le Havre 3 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.16 for Marseille and 0.95 for Le Havre. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Marseille season stats · Le Havre season stats · Ligue 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.