A Lyga · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 12:15. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The A Lyga average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Banga at 47%, the draw at 27% and Šiauliai at 26%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 0.99.
The league sets the starting point. A Lyga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Banga have 14 in 31 this season (9 of 15 at home), Šiauliai 16 in 31 (7 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 31 and 31 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Banga and 0.99 for Šiauliai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Banga season stats · Šiauliai season stats · A Lyga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.