Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts B36 Torshavn at 16%, the draw at 23% and KI Klaksvik at 61%, from expected goals of 0.78 and 1.82.
The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. B36 Torshavn have 14 in 25 this season (5 of 12 at home), KI Klaksvik 12 in 25 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 25 and 25 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 0.78 for B36 Torshavn and 1.82 for KI Klaksvik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B36 Torshavn | 25 | 56% | 24% | 52% |
| KI Klaksvik | 25 | 48% | 32% | 52% |
More: B36 Torshavn season stats · KI Klaksvik season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.