1. Division · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 54%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Vejle at 50%, the draw at 25% and Aarhus Fremad at 25%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vejle have 7 in 11 this season (5 of 5 at home), Aarhus Fremad 5 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Vejle and 1.15 for Aarhus Fremad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vejle | 11 | 64% | 55% | 64% |
| Aarhus Fremad | 11 | 45% | 18% | 55% |
More: Vejle season stats · Aarhus Fremad season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.