Moghreb Tetouan v Widad Témara — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Botola Pro · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 37% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Botola Pro average is 38%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Moghreb Tetouan at 33%, the draw at 33% and Widad Témara at 35%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 0.96.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Botola Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 38% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Moghreb Tetouan have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Widad Témara 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 36%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Moghreb Tetouan and 0.96 for Widad Témara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 34%.

Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 37%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Moghreb Tetouan season stats · Widad Témara season stats · Botola Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.