Toppserien (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Toppserien (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Lyn W at 57%, the draw at 21% and Molde W at 22%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lyn W have 11 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), Molde W 13 in 19 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Lyn W and 1.24 for Molde W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Lyn W season stats · Molde W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.