Kvindeligaen (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Kvindeligaen (W) average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts KoldingQ W at 7%, the draw at 12% and Køge W at 81%, from expected goals of 0.79 and 2.96.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KoldingQ W have 10 in 11 this season (5 of 5 at home), Køge W 9 in 10 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 67%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 62% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 0.79 for KoldingQ W and 2.96 for Køge W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KoldingQ W | 11 | 91% | 82% | 64% |
| Køge W | 10 | 90% | 50% | 50% |
More: KoldingQ W season stats · Køge W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.