Kvindeligaen (W) · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Kvindeligaen (W) average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Fortuna Hjørring W at 70%, the draw at 19% and FC Copenhagen W at 12%, from expected goals of 2.23 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortuna Hjørring W have 8 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), FC Copenhagen W 9 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.23 for Fortuna Hjørring W and 0.79 for FC Copenhagen W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Hjørring W | 11 | 73% | 36% | 45% |
| FC Copenhagen W | 11 | 82% | 45% | 73% |
More: Fortuna Hjørring W season stats · FC Copenhagen W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.