Serie C · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 34%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Ferroviária at 48%, the draw at 28% and Maringá at 24%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferroviária have 8 in 26 this season (3 of 13 at home), Maringá 12 in 26 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 26 and 26 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 38% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Ferroviária and 0.93 for Maringá. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferroviária | 26 | 31% | 27% | 38% |
| Maringá | 26 | 46% | 35% | 58% |
More: Ferroviária season stats · Maringá season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.