NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Dungannon Swifts at 35%, the draw at 27% and Cliftonville FC at 38%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dungannon Swifts have 3 in 11 this season (2 of 5 at home), Cliftonville FC 6 in 12 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Dungannon Swifts and 1.36 for Cliftonville FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungannon Swifts | 11 | 27% | 18% | 27% |
| Cliftonville FC | 12 | 50% | 17% | 42% |
More: Dungannon Swifts season stats · Cliftonville FC season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.