Ligue 2 · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligue 2 average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Dijon at 41%, the draw at 23% and Rodez at 37%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.73.
The league sets the starting point. Ligue 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dijon have 5 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Rodez 5 in 8 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Dijon and 1.73 for Rodez. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Dijon season stats · Rodez season stats · Ligue 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.