NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Carrick Rangers at 51%, the draw at 23% and Limavady United at 26%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 1.26.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Carrick Rangers have 7 in 12 this season (4 of 6 at home), Limavady United 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 58% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.86 for Carrick Rangers and 1.26 for Limavady United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick Rangers | 12 | 58% | 50% | 50% |
| Limavady United | 11 | 45% | 27% | 45% |
More: Carrick Rangers season stats · Limavady United season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.