Toppserien (W) · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Toppserien (W) average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Bodø / Glimt W at 21%, the draw at 20% and Haugesund W at 59%, from expected goals of 1.3 and 2.29.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bodø / Glimt W have 15 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Haugesund W 14 in 19 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 19 and 19 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 1.3 for Bodø / Glimt W and 2.29 for Haugesund W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø / Glimt W | 19 | 79% | 53% | 58% |
| Haugesund W | 19 | 74% | 37% | 68% |
More: Bodø / Glimt W season stats · Haugesund W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.